We recap the week that was, including today’s release of the April employment report, Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference, along with preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Our conversation covers recent developments and potential executive action surrounding the US-Mexico border, Secretary of State Blinken’s Middle East regional tour, and a motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US employment report Friday looms. Around 119,000 companies will be asked about their employees. Around 67,000 companies will not bother to reply. Markets will obsess about the data anyway. The expectation is for slower job creation (as measured by payrolls), with a stable monthly change in average earnings (which are not the same thing as wages).

Our series of emerging markets conversations continues as we expand on CIO’s view on emerging market debt, along with risks and positioning considerations to be mindful of. Featured is Donald McLauchlan, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues around the world discuss inflation expectations, the outlook and implications of the situation in the Middle East, and scenarios for investors.

The Federal Reserve announced a slower pace of shrinking its balance sheet. Context is important here—quantitative policy is about the balance between the supply of and demand for liquidity. Demand for liquidity was slowing significantly after the pandemic, requiring the Fed to shrink its balance sheet to match. Liquidity demand is now slowing less, so the Fed’s balance sheet can shrink more slowly.

A large part of the world is not working today, in celebration of workers. But the old order is changing—and increasingly we may need to celebrate profits. One of the features of the pandemic was an explosion in small business creation. More people have side hustles: Selling on eBay; renting on AirBnB; writing economic books that are widely available for purchase. Self-employment and contract work have increased. The income from these endeavours is often classified as profits.

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

Our conversation outlines some trending tax considerations and developments associated with the muni market. We also spend time reviewing muni-related portfolio themes, along with a review of recent muni market performance drivers. Featured are Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Eurozone April inflation data generates less of the tense excitement that a US inflation release can produce. The regional data we have already had suggests a modest decline in the headline consumer price inflation rate. Overall, Eurozone inflation has fallen from 10.6% to essentially an on-target number within a year and a half—without an unemployment shock. This suggests that inflation is neither sticky, nor conventionally cyclical.

To begin the week, Jason outlines the current market outlook scenarios of the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. We also recap market activity throughout the month of April and touch on renewed concerns over ‘stagflation’. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy